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Sunday, September 18, 2011

Solar storm in 2012 - Should we worry?

When the solar minimum occurred, sunspots disappeared and tongues of fire of the sun disappeared. The sun suddenly became very quiet, just like the usual calm atmosphere before the big storm hit.

Last year, 2012 issue that is associated with the Mayan calendar and the solar storms become one of the hottest topics being discussed by many people. The issue began to subside when many scientists, including NASA's own, issued a statement rejecting speculation apocalypse due to solar storm in 2012. However, in August 2010, a journal of research from an Australian astronomer named David Reneke again raised this issue. Suddenly, the issue of solar storms and 2012 again became a hot issue in this month. Should we worry?
Some marketers believe that Judgement Day 2012, a super solar storm will bake the earth and everything in it. This means the end of the world total for the earth as depicted in the film Knowing. Although this prediction is disputed by scientists, including NASA itself, but at least all agree that the upcoming solar storms could bring the possibility of damage to communications networks worldwide.
Massive destruction of telecommunication systems as it's happened in 1859 when the event known as the Carrington event.
Carrington Event On September 1, 1859, Richard Carrington, the Sun celebrated British astronomer who was then 33 years old, was in the observatory while making observations.
As usual, Carrington observed solar image through a projection on a screen generated by the telescope. With his meticulous drawing of sunspots visible.
Suddenly, in front of his eyes, he saw two points of blinding white light that appeared over the black spots of the sun. Point it looks more intense light and immediately turn into such a kidney.

    
"I immediately ran to call others to participate to watch. When I returned 60 seconds later, I was surprised because the point it has changed shape."
The scene only lasts for 5 minutes. But what caused to the planet earth will always be remembered as one of the most amazing astronomical event (or scary) thing that ever happened.
What Carrington saw was a white flame of the sun (solar flares White) arising from the sun's magnetic explosion. The explosion not only produce light visible to the eye, but also produces a super giant cloud of particles that emit a magnetic vortex, known as Coronal Mass Ejection (CME).

CME created it moves directly toward the Earth and arrive in just 18 hours. It's quite remarkable, considering that generally the way it will be taken in 3 or 4 days. When the CME hit the Earth, which envelops the Earth's magnetic field becomes disturbed thus creating the largest geomagnetic storm ever recorded in history.
The sky above the earth immediately filled with Aurora red, green and purple. The lights were so extraordinary that looks dark night bright as day. Remarkably, the aurora can be seen that even in tropical regions such as Cuba, the Bahamas, Jamaica and Hawaii.
However, the effect is not only there. Show the beautiful aurora was accompanied by major damage to communication systems in Europe and America.
Suddenly, the entire telegraph system in chaos. Sparks looks at the telegraph machines so surprising that operators are on duty. Even when the battery is disconnected the telegraph, the electric current induced by the aurora make these machines can still send messages.
This event gives new meaning to the astronomers on solar activity and its impact on human life.
Within 2 or 3 years from now, there is a possibility that we may face similar problems. Warning this is what was recently given by David Reneke who published his predictions in the Journal of Australasian Science.
Overview of Solar Storms There are many misconceptions about this phenomenon of solar storms. For those who do not understand, solar storms are often regarded as an extraordinary event which is very rare. Though not so.
The sun has cycles average 11 years (between 9-14 years) who started from the period of low activity, called a Solar Minimum, up to a period in which increased activity, called the Solar Maximum. Last solar maximum occurred in 2000.
Thus, the solar storm is not really strange events are rare. Fenemena this is a normal part of the life cycle of the sun.

During the period of solar maximum, appearing Spot Sun (sunspots), the dark spots on the sun's surface caused by the magnetic field lines break through the surface of the sun.
Because the sun is not solid objects like the Earth, different parts of the sun rotate at different speeds as well. This will cause the magnetic field lines become chaotic, causing the formation of the Solar Flare (The flames of the sun) is sometimes accompanied by Coronal Mass Ejection (CME).
This event is often referred to as the Sun Solar Storm or Hurricane.
If the CME is moving toward Earth, carrying the particle will hit Earth's magnetosphere which then will create the aurora.

Prediction David Reneke Return to the prediction Reneke, he said, solar storms that will occur in 2012 has the potential to hit the earth with a force equivalent to 100 million atoms of hydrogen bombs. This power will certainly destroy the entire system of satellites around the world, who fear will bring the earth back to the stone age.
Of course this prediction is not something new because similar events have occurred in previous years. However, the concern by Reneke is a potential strength.
"Generally, astronomers agree that the upcoming solar maximum will be the most powerful in the last 100 years." Reneke said.
"Some believe that these events will affect the airlines, telecommunications companies and anyone who works with modern GPS systems. The storm was able to turn off an orbiting satellite." Added.
Then how to respond other astronomers?
NASA itself is not too worried about these events, but they did have anticipated this storm since 2006. They also estimated that this storm could affect power plants in various places so it's not just the telecommunications industry or the troubled airline, but also other industries such as banking and related to it.
The storm is expected to occur by 2012 end. But they also recognize that no one will ever know for sure how much effect the damage that can be caused.
National Academy of Sciences estimates that Americans never damage that may occur could bring a loss of about 1 to 2 trillion U.S. dollars and takes up to 10 years to recover fully.

Solar storm in a fairly large scale have occurred also in 1989 and caused a blackout all over Quebec, Canada. In the solar storm in 2003, Sweden and South Africa also suffered a similar fate.
Then, a simple question often asked by many people. If true super solar storm occurred in 2012, whether the storm would produce a flame that could devour the whole earth and everything in it like in the movies Knowing?
The answer is: No!
What will happen? Although it sounded so chaotic, real human beings and other living things on earth safely protected. At the time of the previous solar storms, living things on earth are totally unaffected. However, the technology that we have indeed vulnerable to this phenomenon.
Just as happened in 1859, or the year when Quebec, Sweden and South Africa made blackout, solar storms that will come to shed our communication system.
In view of our infrastructure is very dependent on the telecommunication network, the telecom collapse events may lead to paralysis of the other systems, such as finance and transport.
A burst of strong solar storms could bring damage to the intervening power source and our communication lines. This will cause the system to become overloaded and eventually damaged.
According to a report issued by the National Academy of Science United States, when the storms occurred, about 300 power plants in America could be paralyzed in just 90 seconds. This will disconnect the electricity supply to 130 million inhabitants.
Having cut off the power grid, water supplies will also be disconnected. Without electricity and water supply, then the economy will be paralyzed. No office activities and transportation such as airplanes or trains. Even vital facilities such as military bases or hospitals will also be paralyzed. In other words, Chaos!
However, it is the worst scenario.
The good news is, humans have learned from the past.
NASA and space agencies of other countries in the world has to know clearly that solar flares could cripple a satellite system. Because of that long ago, NASA has sent several spacecraft to monitor solar activity. Currently, these vehicles, such as ACE or SOHO, still diligently oversee the changes that occur in solar activity.

If the probe detects a CME, the sensor will immediately generate an alert that gives enough time for human beings of the earth (us) to take anticipatory measures, such as changing our satellite systems into "safe mode". Thus, the resulting damage would be very minimal. The same anticipation has also been made to the infrastructure and other power sources.
Yup, we really have learned. Just as we have learned to anticipate the Y2K Millennium Bug 10 years ago.
Because it is the opinion of David Reneke also got quite a lot of criticism. For example, from his fellow Australian astronomer named Dr.. Phil Wilkinson of Bureu of Meteorology Ionospheric Prediction Service.
According to him, the damage to the satellite will be very minimal. In fact he rejected the notion that solar storms that will happen is the strongest in the last 100 years.
"All these statements are selling, but I believe it is too excessive." He said. "The message really is, solar storms that will come together just as dangerous as solar storms before."
Dr. Wilkinson also said that even if the communication system is disrupted, then the character will only be temporary and local. In addition, he had another reason. According to the monitoring of the astronomers, the solar activity cycle this time was not as strong as previously thought. This makes solar astronomers believe that the sun may be entering a period of "little ice age". This observation is inversely proportional to the prediction Reneke.
So, no need to worry.
Disaster Plan Well, now, suppose you are still concerned about the solar storm in 2012, you may ask: "What if David Reneke right? So what should I do to prepare themselves to face this disaster?"
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), a kind of disaster management agencies in the United States, have an answer to this question. Since a long time they also had anticipated the possibility of infrastructure damage caused by this phenomenon.
According to Craig Fugate, FEMA administrator, at least, the effects of solar storms may be roughly equal to the effects of natural disasters such as hurricanes, floods or earthquakes. Thus, he argues, the standard preparation is adequate. Such as storing water supplies, food, P3K equipment, spare batteries and flashlights as well as cooking utensils.
In other words, what we need to prepare just the same as preparing for natural disasters in general.
Therefore, no need to worry at all. If our telecommunications system is paralyzed, we can not use a mobile phone, blackberry or facebook. However, I believe we will still survive.